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Showing posts from December, 2007

Gambling 101

Gambling
The sure way of getting nothing from something


Lately, I tried gambling. I wanna let people reading this to not gamble coz' it ain't good. Having said this, you're most probably guessing I lost a whole lot of money. But, actually I kinda won a whole lot in only two sessions. Most people would actually tend to believe something called the "Gambler's Fallacy".

Test yourself: You are flipping a coin, and you are not cheating. You have just flipped 7 heads in a row. Is your next flip more likely to be:
HeadsTailsHeads and tails are equally likely The correct answer is 3, heads and tails are equally likely. Answer 1 is an example of one version of the Gambler's Fallacy (you think that your luck will continue). Answer 2 is an example of the opposite version of the Gambler's Fallacy (you think that your luck will change).

A popular way to explain why answer 3 is correct is the expression, "the coin (or dice or whatever) has no memory". It doe…